Key events
Sabadell gets expressions of interest for UK’s TSB
Julia Kollewe
In the banking world, Spain’s Sabadell has said it has received interest from prospective buyers of its UK division TSB, and said it would assess any firm offers it may receive.
Sabadell wants to sell TSB as it battles to fend off an €11bn (£9.4bn) hostile approach from its Spanish rival BBVA.
The Catalonia-based lender said it had received “preliminary non-binding expressions of interest” for TSB from unnamed bidders, and would examine any potential binding offer.
TSB, which has 175 branches in the UK, has more than 5 million customers and 5,000 staff.
UAE evacuates 24 people from oil tanker after collision near Hormuz Strait
Two tankers have collided in waters off the United Arab Emirates and caught fire in the early hours this morning.
The United Arab Emirates coast guard says it evacuated 24 people from oil tanker ADALYNN following a collision between two ships in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz.
National Guard Executes Evacuation of 24 People from Oil Tanker Following Collision Between Two Ships in the sea of Oman
The Coast Guard of the National Guard carried out today, Tuesday, June 17, 2025, an evacuation mission involving 24 crew members of the oil tanker ADALYNN,…
— الحرس الوطني (@Uaengc) June 17, 2025
British maritime security firm Ambrey has said the cause of the incident was not security-related.
Daniel Smith, an analyst at Ambrey, said (via Bloomberg):
“At the time of writing, we can only confirm that it is not a security incident. We continue to investigate the cause.”
IEA: World oil supply to outpace demand growth
Global oil supply is set to increase “far” faster than demand in the coming years, the International Energy Agency has predicted.
In a new report, the IEA argues that oil markets are undergoing structural changes as the key drivers of supply and demand growth of the past 15 years start to fade.
The IEA estimates that global oil demand is forecast to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) between 2024 and 2030, reaching a plateau of around 105.5 mb/d by the end of the decade.
At the same time, global oil production capacity is forecast to rise by more than 5 mb/d to 114.7 mb/d by 2030, due to increased output from the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, and the unwinding of production cuts by the Opec+ group.
The IEA says:
This growth is set to be dominated by robust gains in natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other non-crude liquids. The strategic shift towards higher non-crude capacity is driven by strong global demand for petrochemical feedstocks and the development of liquid‑rich gas resources.
Saxo: Stocks lurch lower on Israel-Iran escalation fears
Anxiety that the Israel-Iran crisis could escalate is pushing European markets down, and the oil price up (see 8.56am), analysts say.
Shares in oil producers such as BP (+1.5%) and Shell (+0.7%) are rising again today, while airlines such as IAG (-2.1%) are falling.
Here’s the situation:
-
UK’s FTSE 100: -46 points or -0.5% at 8828 points
-
German DAX: down 267 points or -1.1% at 23,430 points
-
French CAC: down 61 points or -0.8% at 7,680 points
Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, reports that markets are very “headline driven” right now, reacting to the latest news from the Middle East.
He explains:
After rallying on Monday on hopes that the Israel and Iran conflict would remain contained, stock markets have lurched lower again on Tuesday after US President Trump left early from the G-7 summit in Banff and told Iran to evacuate Tehran, signalling potential escalation of the conflict.
Trump said he left the summit early due to something “much bigger” than discussing a ceasefire. Israel and Iran meanwhile traded strikes for a fifth day. Reports have indicated that Tehran is willing to negotiate, but it takes two to tango and Israel won’t stop until it feels like it’s done enough.
Diplomatic sources in Iran have reportedly pushed for a cease-fire, but Israeli PM Netanyahu said on Monday his country was “not backing down” from eliminating Iran’s nuclear programme.
Oil up 1.5% as Israel-Iran conflict continues
That brief fall in the oil price (see 7.52am) didn’t last long.
Brent crude is now up 1.5% today at $74.36 per barrel, wiping out yesterday’s dip.
Oil is rising as the Israel-Iran conflict enters its fifth day, with attacks between the two countries continuing.
Earlier today, sirens sounded in several areas across Israel following the identification of missiles launched from Iran, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).
AFP also reported that two explosions were heard on Tuesday in Iran’s northwestern city of Tabriz.
UK government aiming for ‘competitive’ energy prices for businesses
Jasper Jolly
The UK is aiming to have energy costs that are competitive with Europe, business minister Sarah Jones has said ahead of the launch of government’s industrial strategy next week.
Jones said that the cost of energy is one of the top three concerns for businesses, who are hoping for aid in the long-awaited strategy.
Her comments came as she announced the first £250m in funding for the Aerospace Technology Institute, which administers research grants. The government had already said it expects to spend £975m on research programmes up to 2030.
The funding will support hydrogen-powered flight, 3D printing and using laser beams for large-scale manufacturing of aeroplane parts, the government said.
Jones was speaking in the rarified surroundings of a gold-leaf salon of the Napoleonic-era residence of Britain’s ambassador to France during the Paris air show, a biannual gathering of the global aerospace and defence industries.
She told the Guardian:
“Whether you’re a company wanting to invest in the UK or whether you’re an existing company in the UK, energy prices is a challenge.
The fact that we’re not competitive with it, with Europe, is the challenge.”
As well as hurting existing industry, high energy prices relative to rivals have made it harder for the UK to attract new industries. That includes so-called sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), made either using biological matter or from hydrogen made using green electricity.
“You’ve got to make sure you have the right environment in place for SAF, and obviously there are other countries that can produce certain things cheaper,” said Jones.
“I think there can be a SAF industry in the UK. There are certain industries that are very interested in coming and that’s what we’re trying to work towards.”
UK car industry cheered by US trade deal sign-off
Julia Kollewe
Overnight, Keir Starmer and Donald Trump have signed off a UK-US trade deal at the G7 summit in Canada, with the US president saying Britain would have protection against future tariffs “because I like them”.
This means tariffs for UK carmakers will be reduced to 10% from 27.5% (25% being the recently introduced new tariff, and 2.5% existing duty). Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders, said industry hopes the new 10% tariff rate will start “in the next few days”, speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
The UK-US trade pact had been negotiated in early May, “but we’ve been waiting for it to be implemented so manufacturers can start shipping without being subject to those punitive tariffs,” he said. He added that “a lot less” had been shipped to the US in the meantime, with some UK manufacturers shipping “a handful” while “a lot had to pause, waiting”. (British luxury carmakers Jaguar Land Rover and Bentley halted shipments, for example.)
Hawes says:
“They’ve been pausing because their customers – they’ve got shrewd customers – were going to wait and see what was going to happen from when the deal was announced. You could see that the cost to the ultimate consumer was going to come down because of the reduction in the tariff, but you just didn’t know when.”
He expressed confidence that the new tariffs will be in place for some time, saying that “it’s been long negotiated and as the president says, he likes the UK”. He noted that UK exports have never been a threat to the US, as they tend to be small volume, high value manufactured goods, “not the type that are made in the US”.
BoJ governor warns oil price changes could lift underlying inflation
Over in Tokyo, Japan’s central bank chief has warned that the jump in the oil price, if maintained, could push up inflation.
Speaking after the BoJ left interest rates on hold today, governor Kazuo Ueda told reporters:
“Coupled with already rising food prices, such moves in oil prices caused by tensions in Iran and Israel, if persist, could risk affecting inflation expectations and underlying inflation. So we must scrutinise developments carefully.”
Ueda also touched on trade war concerns, warning that manufacturers could be forced into cost-cutting if their profits were hit.
He also warned that the economic outlook was clouded by trade war worries, saying:
“Even if developments surrounding U.S. trade policy stabilise toward a certain direction, there’s very high uncertainty on how that could affect the economy….
For the time being, there is extremely high uncertainty over each country’s trade policy. As such, there is bigger downside risk for both Japan’s economy and prices.”
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index has fallen to a three week low this morning.
It’s down 0.9% today, with all the major European indices in the red.
European markets opens lower
European stock markets have opened in the red.
In London, the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has dropped by 45 points, or 0.5%, to 8830 points.
Germany’s DAX dropped almost 1%.
Traders will be watching the Middle East, after US president Donald Trump told Iranians to “immediately evacuate” the capital.
In a post on his Truth Social site, Trump says:
Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!
Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutsche Bank, says investors are in “a bit of a limbo” as to whether anything substantive came out of the G7 summit before Trump’s early departure from the gatherering of world leaders.
Reid adds:
There are still big questions as to whether Israel would be receptive to a ceasefire, given that it is seeking to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Moreover, the public rhetoric hasn’t leant that way either, and Iran’s Mehr News Agency cited a senior security official saying that it is prepared to deliver a “major blow” to Israel after its strikes. So there is maybe diplomatic movement behind the scenes but not yet in the open.
The oil price has dipped slightly this morning, as the Israel-Iran conflict continues to drive markets.
Brent crude has dropped by 0.75% to $72.73 per barrel.
That wipes out some of the oil price’s 7% surge on Friday; it dropped by 1.35% on Monday.
Introduction: Fuel tanker rates surge as Middle East crisis worries markets
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The Israel-Iran conflict is pushing up the costs of chartering oil tankers from the Middle East, as geopolitical fears weigh on markets again.
Tanker rates for vessels carrying refined oil products from the Middle East have surged in the last few days, amid concern that travelling through the Strait of Hormuz is now more risky.
The cost to ship fuels from the Middle East to East Asia climbed almost 20% in three sessions to Monday, according to data from the Baltic Exchange.
Bloomberg, which reported the data, explains:
Benchmark rates for a medium-sized vessel carrying refined oil product from the Middle East to Japan, known as TC1, rose to 136 Worldscale points on Monday from 114 on Thursday. Costs for smaller vessels doing the same route, or TC5, advanced to 167 points, from 139 two sessions prior.
The corresponding level for mid-sized tankers carrying fuels from the Persian Gulf to East Africa, or the TC17 route, meanwhile, was at 287 Worldscale points on Monday, against 202 two sessions ago.
Worldscale points are a percentage of an underlying flat rate, which is set for each major route at the start of the year.
Tanker rates for vessels carrying refined oil products from the Middle East have surged in recent days, as the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran puts the flow of goods in the Hormuz Strait in the spotlight https://t.co/cPqG5QZo2T
— Bloomberg (@business) June 17, 2025
LSEG data shows that the global benchmark rate for a very large crude carrier moving oil from the Middle East Gulf to Japan rose over 20% on Friday after the tensions broke out, and gained another 16% on Monday.
Prices jumped amid worries that Iran could potentially target energy facilities or shipping routes, or even close the Strait of Hormuz, if the current conflict – which began on Friday morning when Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and missile sites – escalates.
Lazard Geopolitical Advisory (LGA) has warned:
A temporary disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit chokepoint for 30% of seaborne oil and 20% of LNG, could push oil prices upwards of $120 per barrel and would likely require US direct involvement to secure safe passage for energy flows.
Even in the absence of a Strait closure, oil markets will see continued volatility as the risk of a disruption evolves.
Naval forces have warned that electronic interference with commercial ship navigation systems has surged in recent days around the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Gulf, which is having an impact on vessels sailing through the region.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence, which monitors maritime traffic, said that loadings of vessels in the Gulf continued over the weekend but tankers waiting to load in Iran were keeping a greater distance from the port.
Shares rallied yesterday in Europe, and in the US, following reports that Iran was seeking an end to hostilities and the resumption of talks over its nuclear programs.
But stocks are likely to fall back today, as hopes of peace talks fade, after Israel issued an evacuation order to residents of a large part of Tehran.
Donald Trump, who left the G7 leaders summit early last night, has denied that he cut short his appearance at the meeting to broker a truce between Israel and Iran.
The agenda
-
All day: Paris air show
-
9am BST: IEA monthly oil market report
-
9.45am BST: Bank of England financial policy committee member Randall Kroszner gives a speech
-
10am BST: ZEW survey of German economic sentiment
-
11am BST: Germany’s Bundesbank issues monthly report
-
1.30pm BST: US retail sales report for May
-
2.15pm BST: US industrial production data for May
