Speaker confirms that MPs will get vote on rebel Labour amendment intended to kill off bill
The debate on the UC and Pip bill – or welfare bill, as some are calling it – is starting.
Lindsay Hoyle says he has selected the reasoned amendment tabled by Rachael Maskell.
That means it will be put to a vote at 7pm.
If it passes, the bill will fall.
If government MPs vote it down, there will then be a vote on the main motion, that the bill gets a second reading.
Key events
Kendall says the government is bringing forward an extra £300m employment support for sick and disabled people, on top of the £1bn in support previously announced.
Kendall says Pip claimants with fluctuating conditions could be treated as being so disabled they can never return to work
In response to an intervention from Jim Shannon, a DUP MP, Kendall says that, even if a Pip claimant has a fluctuating condition, they can still qualify as being covered by the severe conditions criteria, which applies to people whose disability is so bad they can never go back to work. Under the bill, people in this group will not face regular reassessments.
Kendall says government will publish updated impact assessments, showing positive effect of employment schemes
Polly Billington (Lab) intervenes, asking about the poverty figures published yesterday. They do not take into account the impact of employment measures. Will the government publish a fresh assessment taking into account the impact those programmes will have.
Kendall says there is evidence that the government’s employment programmes work. She says before the committee stage next Wednesday she publish “further updated impact assessments … spelling this out in more detail”.
A Tory MP asks Kendall why the DWP’s own figures show the bill will put an extra 150,000 into poverty.
Kendall says that shows chutzpah from the Tories, given they put 900,000 more children into poverty.
Liz Kendall opens debate on UC and Pip bill
Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is opening the debate.
She starts by making the case for getting more sick and disabled people back into work.
Speaker confirms that MPs will get vote on rebel Labour amendment intended to kill off bill
The debate on the UC and Pip bill – or welfare bill, as some are calling it – is starting.
Lindsay Hoyle says he has selected the reasoned amendment tabled by Rachael Maskell.
That means it will be put to a vote at 7pm.
If it passes, the bill will fall.
If government MPs vote it down, there will then be a vote on the main motion, that the bill gets a second reading.
Starmer defends government’s record at cabinet
Keir Starmer has defended his government’s record over its first year in office at cabinet, PA Media reports. PA says:
The prime minister insisted at a meeting of senior ministers that his team could look back with a “real sense of pride and achievement” as the 5 July anniversary of his first year in office nears.
The government’s work has focused on giving working people a “chance to thrive, not just survive”, a Downing Street spokesperson said, as Labour backbenchers continue to threaten a rebellion over welfare reforms they insist will have a negative impact on disabled people.
The welfare reform bill will have its first airing in the Commons today and some Labour backbenchers continue to say they will vote to halt the legislation, after a much larger rebellion was quelled by ministers last week.
Starmer opened the cabinet meeting on Tuesday morning by telling senior ministers the welfare reforms are “designed to help those who can work into employment and ensure dignity and security for those who can’t work”, a No 10 spokesperson said.
“He then reflected on the last year in office, saying we could all rightly look back with a real sense of pride and achievement,” the spokesperson added.
No 10 pointed to the three trade deals struck with India, the US, and the EU, the extra investment in the spending review, and a cut in NHS waiting lists among the government’s achievements one year on.
The spokesperson added: “He said the government’s work is all designed and focused on improving the lives of working people and giving them the chance to thrive, not just survive, and the government should be proud of those achievements as a team.”
Kemi Badenoch is going to respond to Liz Kendall in the second reading debate, not Helen Whately, the shadow work and pensions secretary, James Heale from the Spectator reports on Bluesky.
Understand that Kemi Badenoch will be doing the opening speech to the welfare bill debate for the Opposition in the Commons today
This is something that Badenoch has done before on big parliamentary occasions. You could view it as leading from the front, or you might view it as the response of a leader concerned by repeated reports suggesting her party will replace her within the next year or so.
What happens next to UC and Pip bill if it passes tonight?
In the comments some readers have been asking about the timetable for the passage of the bill. Someone posted this.
Some who’ll vote today have made it clear they won’t oppose unless the committee stage doesn’t respond to concerns. A rushed third reading is unlikely. If the Lords are clever and send back mild amendments delaying minor parts of it the government could be in trouble if they rush late votes.
But in fact a rushed third reading is what is exactly what is going to happen. The government has announced that, after tonight’s second reading (assuming it passes), the remaining stages of the bill (committee of the whole house and third reading) will happen on Wednesday next week.
After that, the bill will go to the Lords. But the bill has been designated as a “money bill”, and that means peers are supposed to fast-track it, without trying to re-write it. That is because of the convention that the Commons has total primacy over financial legislation.
This means there is little or no scope for parliamentarians to amend the bill after today – beyond the amendments that the government has already said it will pass next Wednesday to implment the concessions announced last week.
Voters opposed to welfare cuts, but more split on whether disability benefits should cover mental health conditions, poll suggests
YouGov has published some new polling on the government’s sickness and disability benefit cuts. It was carried out on Thursday and Friday last week, with the polling starting before the government’s U-turn was announced.
Overall, people opposed the cuts by 40% to 26%. Only Conservative supporters were in favour – even though in parliament the Tories are voting against.
People are particularly opposed to cuts to benefits for disabled people unable to work, the poll suggests.
But the poll also suggests that the public are divided over whether people should be able to claim disability benefits for mental health conditions. The rise in mental health-related claims accounts for more than half the increase in disability claims, research shows.
YouGov found 44% of people generally or wholly opposed to these claims being allowed, with 49% generally or wholly in favour.
The government is hoping to persuade Labour rebels to back the UC and Pip bill partly by stressing the importance of the review of the Pip assessment being carried out by Stephen Timms, the social security and disability minister. If you are looking for an explanation of why the Pip assessment causes so much worry for claimants, there is a good account in Ed Davey’s new book, Why I Care. Davey says:
Those without a disability would be astonished if they knew what the benefits process is actually like. You might have reams of evidence, from specialist doctors who have known you for years and understand your condition inside out, but still a health professional from those private companies who assess Pip eligibility will do a formal DWP assessment, and may fail you despite medical evidence that you are eligible.
These health professionals assessing for Pip are qualified, to a point – they might have a nursing degree or occupational therapy training – but they’re not specialists. They have a broad set of criteria and a huge amount of discretion. They might watch you mash a banana and decide that means you can prepare food. They might decide your hair looks nice or you’re well presented, and tick ‘can dress and undress’, ignoring the fact that a loved one helped you, or maybe you spent three hours getting ready that morning. Life just isn’t that straightforward. If you have a chronic pain condition, there are many tasks you could perform for 20 minutes but that might wipe you out for the next three days.
We need a mature debate about how best to establish the extent of someone’s disability at the same time as offering a range of support to help those who can work into work. The problem with the actions the Labour government has taken in spring 2025 is that they are clearly a smokescreen for dangerous cuts. The effect has been to generate a huge amount of fear and anxiety in people who may not actually be affected.
Davey, the Lib Dem leader, has been a carer for most of his life, first when he was a teenager for his dying mother and now for his severely disabled son. In his book he writes about movingly about unpaid care, or what he calls family care, as well as fleshing out the contours of what a reformed care system would look like. It’s a good read. The Guardian wrote more about it here.
Reeves insists government committed to cutting number of sick and disabled people in poverty
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has defended the government’s record on support for sick and disabled people.
Speaking during Treasury questions in response to a question from Rachael Maskell, who has tabled what is now the Labour reasoned amendment to kill off the bill (see 9.08am and 9.22am), Reeves said:
The government is committed to ensuring that there are fewer sick and disabled people in poverty by helping them into work and getting them off NHS waiting lists.
That is why at the spring statement, we announced the largest investment in employment support in at least a generation. The government has already taken action to tackle poverty including with the fair repayment rate, which lowers the cap on deductions in universal credit.
And we’ve increased the national living wage by 6.7%.
Beyond this, we’re investing to reduce poverty by expanding free school meals, investing in a £1bn settlement for crisis support, and we’ll be setting out our child poverty strategy in the autumn. We’ve invested £29bn in reducing NHS waiting lists, and since taking office, there are 385,000 more people in work.
Rachel Reeves is taking Treasury questions in the Commons until 12.30pm. At that point Jonathan Reynolds, business secretary, will make a statement on his plans for a review of parental leave. That means the debate on the UC and Pip bill will start around 1.30pm. And it will run until 7pm.
Will welfare bill go through? Pippa Crerar on latest state of play
This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, with her latest take on the state of play ahead of the start of the debate on the UC and Pip bill.
Meg Hillier, who tabled the original wrecking amendment to welfare bill, confirms she’ll now vote for it.
“I’ve not always been happy about how No 10 has engaged with MPs in general, but on this they acted in good faith: listened, made an offer and honoured it,” she tells @guardian
Her view reflects that of a chunk of former rebels, while others say they’ll hold their noses to back it at second reading, and try to tweak at later stages.
Of those who’ve already decided to vote against, around 40 have signed Rachel Maskell’s new amendment. Rebel leaders say others are expected to join them in voting lobbies, but not to sign.
But many MPs are yet to make up their minds, and want to hear what Liz Kendall has to say today, after despatch box appearance y’day which made things worse.
Some of them are considering abstaining – which could upend the parliamentary maths. But they’re haunted by criticism of Labour MP who followed Harriet Harman’s whip in 2015 and didn’t vote against Tory welfare bill (they abstained).
“People are in turmoil,” one Labour MP tells me. At this stage, it feels like the government will get its welfare bill through second reading. Just. But it’s not in the bag and today will make all the difference.
Here is a Westminster creature associated with cunning, guile and ruthlessness. And there is a fox in the picture too, being sized up by the government chief whip, Alan Campbell, as he left Downing Street after cabinet this morning.
Will Starmer’s rebellion over plans to cut sickness benefit match what happened when Blair tried the same in 1999
The vote tonight is likely to set some sort of record – if only for the biggest parliamentary rebellion during Keir Starmer’s first year in office. Philip Cowley, the politics professor and expert on Commons voting, has compiled this list of previous benchmarks to provide some benchmarks against which tonight’s revolt can be judged. He says:
16 – is the largest backbench rebellion Starmer’s whips have seen so far, earlier this month during the passage of the planning and infrastructure bill.
47 – was the largest rebellion in Tony Blair’s first year, over lone parent benefit.
67 – was the largest rebellion in Tony Blair’s first parliament, over incapacity benefit.
72 – is the largest rebellion by Labour MP at the second reading of their governments’ bills, a record shared by votes in 1947 (national service) and 2004 (university fees)
91 – is both the largest rebellion in the first year of any government since the war (a 1975 vote over the civil list) and the largest rebellion by government MPs at the second reading of any bill since 1945 (House of Lords reform, in 2012)
139 – is the largest backbench rebellion of any governing party since the Corn Laws (Iraq, 2003)
In terms of subject matter, the Blair-era revolts over incapacity benefit reform were closest to what is happening today. Incapacity benefit was a sickness benefit that was replaced by employment and support allowance, which now for some claimants has been replaced by universal credit – covered by today’s bill. Here is the Guardian report of the vote where 67 Labour MPs rebelled against Tony Blair in May 1999.
That revolt carried on into the autumn of 1999. Here is another report from the time about Blair’s efforts to reform incapacity benefit. You will see that a lot of the arguments have echoes of what is happening today.
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